The British pound left the ERM on 16 September 1992 after a period of turbulence. UK monetary policy soon shifted to lower short interest rates, and an inflation target was announced. This paper uses daily option prices to estimate how the market's probability distribution of the future...

John Mills is one of Britain’s most stimulating economic thinkers. Unusually, he has many decades of practical business experience and is also more commonly associated with the political left than the right. It is therefore an immense pleasure to engage with him on some of the most important...

The devaluation of 1967 and the float of 1972 have become two of the key cornerstones in the analysis of sterling under the Bretton Woods system. Sterling's fortunes between 1968 and 1972 have not been so well documented. This article uncovers new evidence about the pound for this period,...

Sterling in Decline takes the devaluations of 1931, 1949 and 1967 as a metaphor for Britain's changing position in the world economy. It traces the decline of the pound sterling from the world's pre-eminent currency, together with the dollar's rise to prominence. It also challenges the...