"This book explores fractal structure and long-term memory of the financial markets to predict prices of financial assets and financial crisis. It identifies the criteria to select financial assets for investment and the creation of a randomized algorithm of R/S-analysis, which allows to give a...

"This book explores fractal structure and long-term memory of the financial markets to predict prices of financial assets and financial crisis. It identifies the criteria to select financial assets for investment and the creation of a randomized algorithm of R/S-analysis, which allows to give a...

We develop an agent-based model for the euro area that fulfils widely recommended requirements for nextgeneration macroeconomic models by i) incorporating financial frictions, ii) relaxing the requirement of rational expectations, and iii) including heterogeneous agents. Using macroeconomic and...

This paper examines whether the presence of parameter instabilities in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models affects their forecasting performance. We apply this analysis to medium-scale DSGE models with and without financial frictions for the US economy. Over the forecast period...

We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...