Investigations into value-based 'anomalies' such as the P/E effect typically sort shares into quintiles, or at most deciles. These are blunt instruments. We test whether most of the extra value to be found in the lower end of the P/E spectrum is to be found in the very lowest P/E shares, and...

The price-earnings effect has been thoroughly documented and widely studied around the world. However, in existing research it has almost exclusively been calculated on the basis of the previous year's earnings. We show that the power of the effect has until now been seriously underestimated,...

The price-earnings ratio is a widely used measure of the expected performance of companies, and it has almost invariably been calculated as the ratio of the current share price to the previous year's earnings. However, the P/E of a particular stock is partly determined by outside influences such...

Evidence suggests that rational, periodically collapsing speculative bubbles may be pervasive in stock markets globally, but there is no research that considers them at the individual stock level. In this study we develop and test an empirical asset pricing model that allows for speculative...

This paper is the first to utilize a direct test for periodic, partially collapsing speculative bubbles in US REIT prices. A long history of data is employed for the All, Mortgage and Equity REIT categories. This approach is more powerful than existing tests and is based on the formulation of a...

In this paper we test for the presence of periodically partially collapsing, positive and negative, speculative bubbles in the S&P 500 Composite Index for the period 1888-2001. We extend existing regime-switching models of speculative behaviour by including abnormal volume as an indicator of the...

This study tests for the presence of periodically, partially collapsing speculative bubbles in the sector indices of the S&P 500 using a regime-switching approach. We also employ an augmented model that includes trading volume as a technical indicator to improve the ability of the model to time...

In this paper we examine whether a three-regime model that allows for dormant, explosive and collapsing speculative behaviour can explain the dynamics of the S&P 500 Composite Index for the period 1888-2001. We extend existing two-regime models of speculative behaviour by including a third...

Following early failures, more recent empirical evidence has suggested that timing entries to and exits from equity markets may be feasible. A number of approaches to this most basic form of dynamic asset allocation are available, but which works best? This study investigates the relative...

In this paper we test for the presence of periodically partially collapsing, positive and negative speculative bubbles in the Samp;P 500 Composite Index for the period 1888-2003. We extend existing regime - Switching models of speculative behavior by including abnormal volume as an indicator of...