This paper uses a new risk aversion index to investigate the predictive effect of risk aversion on oil returns under different market conditions. Moreover, we assess whether the US partisan conflict shapes the prediction of risk aversion for oil returns. Based on the quantile regressions of oil...

Forecasting oil prices has been of great interests for macroeconomists in the recent years. Our article contributes to this strand of the literature by using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) method to improve forecasting accuracy of real oil prices. The advantage of DMA is that the method...

This article investigates out-of-sample performance of the naïve hedging strategy relative to that of the minimum variance hedging strategy, in which the covariance parameters are estimated from eighteen econometric models. Hedging performance is compared across twenty-four futures markets. Our...

We develop a novel method to impose constraints on univariate predictive regressions of stock returns. Unlike the previous approaches in the literature, we implement our constraints directly on the predictor, setting it to zero whenever its value falls below the variable's past 12-month high....

While the relationship between oil prices and stock markets is of great interest to economists, previous studies do not differentiate oil-exporting countries from oil-importing countries when they investigate the effects of oil price shocks on stock market returns. In this paper, we address this...

This paper empirically investigates whether the degree of corruption affected the corporate cash holdings of Chinese-listed non-financial firms over the 2003-2013 period. We find that corporate cash holdings are negatively correlated with measures of corruption. For firms facing fewer financing...