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China’s lending boom to developing countries is morphing into defaults and debt distress. Given the secrecy surrounding China’s loans, also the associated defaults remain “hidden”, as missed payments and restructuring details are not disclosed. We construct an encompassing dataset of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012807855
the country has an incentive to default after a liquidity shock. Indeed, we show that the country may choose to retain … world with liquidity crises and strategic default, we model a contracting game between international lenders and a country … probability of liquidity shocks is high enough; however the cost of debt increases in reserves when the lenders anticipate that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125687
anticipate that the country has an incentive to default after a liquidity shock. Indeed, in the event of such a shock, we show … world with liquidity crises and strategic default, we model a contracting game between international lenders and a country … reserves if the probability of liquidity shocks is high enough; however the cost of debt increases in reserves when the lenders …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132969
credit markets, liquidity demands rise in a country's domestic banking sector, which raise the probability of bank runs and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027906
This paper proposes the use of a more realistic alternative for estimating debt sustainability so that the continuum nature of the debt ratio is accommodated. Using the data for Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) and Sub Saharan African (SSA) countries, the study measures the degree of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012862820
combination of two debts to smooth consumption, which is subject to output shock and volatile tax distortions. In equilibrium, it … mostly relies on domestic debt to smooth the tax wedge and on foreign debt to smooth the output shock. Issuing either debt is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014491202
This paper explores how selective default expectations affect the pricing of sovereign bonds in a historical laboratory: the German default of the 1930s. We analyze yield differentials between identical government bonds traded across various creditor countries before and after bond market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014495920
This paper studies the relationship between sovereign debt default and (short term) GDP growth taking into account the depth of a debt restructuring and distinguishing between commercial and official sovereign debt restructurings. Analyzing default episodes in 117 countries over the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013009492
This paper studies the relationship between sovereign debt default and annual GDP growth taking into account the depth of a debt restructuring and distinguishing between commercial and official sovereign debt restructurings. Analyzing 73 default episodes in 117 countries over the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965600
Sovereign debt crises are difficult to solve. This paper studies the "holdout problem", meaning the risk that creditors refuse to participate in a debt restructuring. We document a large variation in holdout rates, based on a comprehensive new dataset of 23 bond restructurings with external...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405397