This paper takes stock of revenue forecasting practices in low-income countries, and provides a comprehensive and condensed account of the revenue forecasting process. Based on a new dataset on 34 low-income countries, it catalogues forecasting practices and procedures from inception until...

This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new...

This paper describes the weighting methodology for the second wave of the Living in Germany - Nationwide Corona Monitoring study (RKI-SOEP2). Information from the larger, ongoing German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) study from which the households are sampled is used to analyze the determinants of...

This paper proposes a structural econometric approach to estimating the basic reproduction number (R0) of Covid-19. This approach identifies R0 in a panel regression model by filtering out the effects of mitigating factors on disease diffusion and is easy to implement. We apply the method to...

Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than COVID-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen. What are the basic principles that...

The number of cases of the COVID - 19 being reported on a daily basis in China is stabilising however there is no studies have been undertaken to evaluate the correlation between the COVID - 19 Confirmed cases and Recovered cases in China. The contemporary study is undertaken to analyse the...

The number of cases of the COVID-19 being reported on a daily basis in China is stabilising however there is no studies have been undertaken to evaluate the correlation between the COVID-19 Confirmed cases and Recovered cases in China. The contemporary study is undertaken to analyze the...

Happiness levels (states) are volatile and often fluctuate between a happy and unhappy state from one day to the next. The reasons for these shifts are mostly unobservable and not predictable. In this paper, we fit a Marko Switching Dynamic Regression Model (MSDR) to better understand the...