This paper examines the implications of the expectations theory of the term structure for the implementation of inflation targeting. We show that the term structure weakens the transmission of short-term interest rates to ultimate policy objectives. Therefore, short term interest rates in the...

Policy brief on the impacts of COVID-19 on long-term food security. The brief looks at three scenarios for food security by 2040, and quantifies the impact of COVID-19 on undernourishment by 2040. It then moves to unpacking the underlying drivers of food supply, food access and food utilization

Guinea-Bissau is currently one of the least developed countries in the world, ranking 178th out of 189 countries on the Human Development Index (2019). We study the economic and human development outlook to 2040. We show that economic growth will improve the human condition in Guinea-Bissau...

The spread of COVID-19 has been devastating for the millions of people who have been infected by the virus and lost their lives and the tens of millions of people who have lost their work and livelihoods. Governments and civil society have responded swiftly to the virus with policies that reduce...

A stylised fact of monetary policy making is that central banks do not immediately respond to new information but rather seem to prefer to wait until sufficient 'evidence' to warrant a change has accumulated. However, theoretical models of inflation targeting imply that an optimising central...