Research in both economics and psychology suggests that, when agents predict the next value of a random series, they frequently exhibit two types of biases, which are called the gambler's fallacy (GF) and the hot hand fallacy (HHF). The gambler's fallacy is to expect a negative correlation in a...

Using weekly stock-bond correlations estimated with high-frequency data, the authors find that a lower (more negative) stock-bond correlation forecasts falling 10-year interest rates over the coming weeks, and it also forecasts a falling 1-year interest rates over the next year. The reverse is...

Using weekly stock-bond correlations estimated with high-frequency data, the authors find that a lower (more negative) stock-bond correlation forecasts falling 10 -year interest rates over the coming weeks, and it also forecasts a falling 1-year interest rates over the next year. The reverse is...

This paper proposes a two-state Markov-switching model for stock market returns in which the state-dependent expected returns, their variance and associated regime-switching dynamics are allowed to respond to market information. More specifically, we apply this model to examine the explanatory...

Using weekly stock-bond correlations estimated with high-frequency data, the authors find that a lower (more negative) stock-bond correlation forecasts falling 10-year interest rates over the coming weeks, and it also forecasts a falling 1-year interest rates over the next year. The reverse is...

This article takes the defaulted bonds as the research object, uses the structural break points of bond prices as the benchmark, and the days of the largest rating downgrade or the first downgrade or negative rating outlook as the time of rating adjustment. The number of days between the two can...