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This paper focuses on the predictive role of inflation and interest rates in forecasting stock returns. We report … economically significant in-sample evidence that stock returns are predictable using cyclical components of inflation and interest … the fact that both inflation and interest rates contain stochastic trends. Accounting for changes in trend inflation (and …
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(GMM) estimation are both suitable for MSM-t models, (ii) empirical panel forecasts of MSM-t models show an improvement …
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The increasing availability of financial market data at intraday frequencies has not only led to the development of improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper...
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Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation procedure to cope with the documented difficulties of previous methodologies. We … foreign exchange markets. -- Random Lognormal cascades ; GMM estimation ; best linear forecasting ; volatility of financial …
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