This paper empirically examines the impact of oil price levels and volatility on key macroeconomic indicators of … Indonesia. In particular, two measures of volatility – historical volatility and realized volatility – are utilized and compared … for their different macroeconomic impacts. The relationships between oil price levels, the two volatility measurements …

periods is attributed to the time-varying volatility of shocks. The history for inflation is more nuanced, as a more vigorous …In this paper the authors report the results of the estimation of a rich dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …) model of the U.S. economy with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in the Taylor rule. They use the results of …

estimation of the breakpoints. We find that inspection of the recursive eigenvalues is not useful to detect a break in the … adjustment coefficients, whilst recursive estimation of the coefficients can only indicate non-constancy, but not the exact … breakpoint. Rolling estimation is found to perform better in detecting non-constancy in the parameters and their true value after …

the way these expectations are formed. Using a new approach for modeling forecast errors in a structural way, we show that … explain the development of inflation dynamics and the formation process of inflation expectations of households respectively. We …

indicate,with one exception, no meaningful differences in forecast accuracy between outlook forecastsand futures prices. The …

flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the … encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide … incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast …

shifts in current account imbalances and real GDP volatility, while on the micro level, it leads to allocation inefficiencies …

divergent information. We manipulate forecast ability so that two individuals are strong analysts and two are weak. In three …