We analyze time-varying volatility in crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas futuresmarkets by incorporating changes in important macroeconomic variables and majorpolitical and weather-related events in conditional variance equations. We allow eachmarket to respond to positive news different...

The launch of the economic and monetary union in Europe and the 1997 financial crisis that underscored the disadvantages of currently employed exchange rate regimes raised questions about the feasibility of a similar monetary unification project for East Asia. Being one of the most dynamically...

We use a spatial competition based model in a two-stage game setup to assess whether equilibrium in exchange rates among the leading currencies is attainable. We show that a stable equilibrium can be reached in the case of two leading currencies, but not in the case of three. In our model,...

Este artículo describe una metodología que permite contrastar la convergencia absoluta y relativa del nivel general de precios (en media y varianza), basada en un modelo de precios relativos que incluye un proceso de transición y permite medir la velocidad de convergencia de precios entre un...

En este documento se estudian los efectos de la política fiscal y el espacio fiscal existente en una unión monetaria compuesta por países con distintos niveles de deuda pública. Desarrollamos un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico (DSGE, por sus siglas en inglés) de una...

Estudiamos los efectos macroeconómicos de devaluaciones internas llevadas a cabo en los países de la periferia de una unión monetaria. Encontramos que las devaluaciones internas tienen efectos grandes y positivos sobre el output en el largo plazo. A través del canal de expectativas, la mayor...

This paper focuses on the non linear adjustment of import prices in national currency to shocks in exchange rates and foreign prices measured in the exporters' currency of products originating outside the euro area and imported into European Union countries (EU 15). The paper looks at three...

We analyse the likely effects of changes in the monetary and financial regimes of EMU countries on the dynamics of output and inflation. In particular, we evaluate the impact of the regime shift on the forecasting performance of reduced-form models. Data for both the pre-EMU and the EMU regimes...

This paper studies the pass-through of exchange rate changes into the prices of imports that originated inside the euro area made by some New Member States (NMSs) of the European Union and one candidate country (Turkey). I use data on import unit values for nine different product categories and...

We study simple fiscal rules for stabilizing the government debt level in response to asymmetric demand shocks in a country that belongs to a currency union. We compare debt stabilization through tax rate adjustments with debt stabilization through expenditure changes. While rapid and flexible...