Quantitative policy analysts are usually confronted with the problem to derive a base-line scenario that reflects the most likely state of an economy in a future year. The methods used in practice to derive such a base-line scenarios are heterogeneous and range from the usage of the last...

Many economic reforms are undertaken at a time of economic crisis. But is this a good time for a country to undertake trade reform? In this paper we investigate whether an economic crisis at the time of trade liberalisation affects a country’s subsequent growth performance. We employ threshold...

In this paper, the welfare results in trade liberalisation scenarios in global CGE models (like GTAP)are analysed. The default modeling strategy in trade is the Armington assumption with bilateral tradeflows in industries. The negative terms of trade effects that often dominate the negative...

The objective of this study is to analyze theimpact of crude oil prices on the EU-27 agriculturalsector in an era when the biofuels sector is expandingbecause of the policy initiatives taken by the EUCommission and member states. To this end, first abaseline is set up for the EU-27 ethanol,...

Ongoing bilateral trade negotiations between the Mercosur group and the EU since 2000 onagricultural products served as incitement to analyse the impacts of possible outcomes. The objectiveof this paper is to quantitatively assess impacts of bilateral liberalisation scenarios on EU25 andMercosur...