In important conflicts such as wars and labor-management disputes, people typically rely on the judgment of experts to predict the decisions that will be made. We compared the accuracy of 106 forecasts by experts and 169 forecasts by novices about eight real conflicts. The forecasts of experts...

Substantial evidence indicates that information is distorted during decision making. However, no studies have assessed the distortion of outcome and probability information in risky decisions or the effects of ambiguity on information distortion. We report two studies involving six binary...

Substantial evidence indicates that information is distorted during decision making. However, no studies have assessed the distortion of outcome and probability information in risky decisions or the effects of ambiguity on information distortion. This paper reports two studies involving six...

This research proposes a normative approach in two infrastructural manufacturing decisions: quality and product development. Quality, as employed in the research, is defined as satisfying customer needs given a market segment. Product defects lead to customer dissatisfaction and have a negative...

Conjoint analysis is widely used as a marketing research technique to study consumers? product preferences and simulate customer choices. It is used in designing new products, changing or repositioning existing products, evaluating the effect of price on purchase intent, and simulating market...

Customers change their preferences while getting more familiar with services or being motivated to change their buying habits. Different sources of motivation induce customers to change their behavior: an advertisement, a leader in a reference group, satisfaction from services usage and other...

Derivamos las condiciones para la elección óptima de cartera bajo una utilidad con aversión al riesgo relativo constante y distribuciones de probabilidad alternativas que son capaces de capturar las caraterísticas de asimetría y curtosis de los rendimientos de los activos financieros....

This undergraduate class serves as an introduction to probability and statistics, with emphasis on engineering applications. The first segment discusses events and their probability, Bayes' Theorem, discrete and continuous random variables and vectors, univariate and multivariate distributions,...