Organizations in the private sector must do strategic planning over long-term horizons to locate new facilities, plan new products, develop competitive advantages, and so forth. Consequently, long-term forecasts of demand, costs of raw materials, etc. are important in the private sector. There...

This paper introduces a new spatio-temporal forecasting methodology that combines artificial neural networks and cellular automata with GIS-based data. The technique, which we refer to as chaotic cellular forecasting (CCF) is similar to spatial adaptive filtering due to Foster and Gorr (1986)...

Organizations that use time series forecasting on a regular basis generally forecast many variables, such as demand for many products or services. Within the population of variables forecasted by an organization, we can expect that there will be groups of analogous time series that follow...

Crime forecasting is a new area of research, following upon the success of crime mapping for support of tactical deployment of police resources. The major question investigated in this paper is whether it is possible to accurately forecast crime one month ahead at a “smallscale” aggregation,...

This paper applies receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis to M3 Competition, micro monthly time series for one-month-ahead forecasts. Using the partial area under the curve (PAUC) criterion as a forecast accuracy measure and paired-comparison testing via bootstrapping, we find that...

This paper identifies forecasts of exceptions in product or service demand (i.e., large changes or extreme values) as a special need in forecasting, requiring new forecast accuracy measures based on the tails of sampled forecast error distributions. For this purpose, the paper introduces...

Time series monitoring methods, such as the Brown and Trigg methods, have the purpose of detecting pattern breaks (or “signals”) in time series data reliably and in a timely fashion. Traditionally, researchers have used the average run length statistic (ARL) on results from generated signal...

This short paper was prepared for the NIJ Roundtable for Developing an Evaluation Methodology for Geographic Profiling Software (August 10 and 11, 2004) on approaches for validating geographic profiling (GP) methods. The paper presents a framework for validating any GP method or software package...

Based on crime attractor and displacement theories of environmental criminology, we specify a leading indicator model for forecasting serious property and violent crimes. The model, intended for support of tactical deployment of police resources, is at the micro-level scale; namely,...