An important issue any organization or individual has to face when managing data containing sensitive information, is the risk that can be incurred when releasing such data. Even though data may be sanitized before being released, it is still possible for an adversary to reconstruct the original...

This half-semester course discusses decision theory and topics in game theory. We present models of individual decision-making under certainty and uncertainty. Topics include preference orderings, expected utility, risk, stochastic dominance, supermodularity, monotone comparative statics,...

This dissertation quantitatively evaluates selected labor market policies in a search-matching model with skill heterogeneity where high-skilled workers can take temporary jobs with skill requirements below their skill levels. The joint posterior distribution of structural parameters of the...

We present an hierarchical Bayes approach to modeling parameter heterogeneity in generalized linear models. The model assumes that there are relevant subpopulations and that within each subpopulation the individual-level regression coefficients have a multivariate normal distribution. However,...

The statistical inference based on the ordinary least squares regression is sub-optimal when the distributions are skewed or when the quantity of interest is the upper or lower tail of the distributions. For example, the changes in Total Sharp Scores (TSS), the primary measurements of the...

This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster (BHOF), which forecasts daily heating oil demand for individual customers who are enrolled in an automatic delivery...

The point source is the most common type of source to be modeled for its effect on air pollution. Point sources provide auxiliary information that may impact both the mean and covariance structure of measured responses, but these possible impacts are often overlooked by spatial modelers. In this...

In survival data analysis, the proportional hazards (PH), accelerated failure time(AFT), and proportional odds (PO) models are commonly used semiparametric models forthe comparison of survivability in subjects. These models assume that the survival curvesdo not cross. However, in some clinical...

Este trabajo presenta un modelo de frontera estocástica con parámetros aleatorios en el componente de ineficiencia aplicado al sector bancario. Este modelo permite capturar la influencia de las exposiciones de riesgo sobre la eficiencia bancaria y distingue estos efectos entre bancos con...

This paper analyzes the determinants of Spain's macroeconomic fluctuations since the inception of the euro in 1999, with a special attention to observed growth and inflation differentials with respect to the rest of the European Monetary Union (EMU). For that purpose we estimate the Banco de...