then uses an event tree to develop a set of compromise paths. Probability models are developed for each of the compromise … paths that user parameters based on expert judgment or historical data on security violations. The resulting probability …. Application of the methodology is demonstrated using a national security example. A set of compromise paths and probability models …

probability, with confidence interval, of the time that a prescribed degradation level is exceeded is shown to be practical, as … demonstrated in the analysis of irradiated fuel cladding. The methodology for the estimation of the probability is predicated on …

and prediction uncertainty with different probability structures. Several examples are presented utilizing this metric. We …

probability of individual component failure is sometimes interpreted as the percentage of components likely to fail, this … multiplying by the probability of individual component failure. However, more complicated cost models require a break down of how … many components are likely to fail. This break down enables the calculation of costs associated with various probability of …