Recent trends of globalization and financial market internationalization have exposed the vulnerability of many emerging financial markets to external shocks and spillover effects from regional crisis. It is believed that similar spillover effects were the root cause of the 1997 financial crisis...

Grain prices have risen sharply since 2005 and 2006 affecting livestock markets by increasingfeed prices and leading to significant volatility shocks. The high price levels and magnitude ofsustained high volatilities has raised concerns for many sectors of the economy, in particularthose with...

This paper examines the twin deficits hypothesis in the ASEAN countries. The major findings of this paper are the following. (1) Long run relationships are detected between budget and current account deficits. (2) The Keynesian view fits well for Thailand since the causality runs from budget...

This paper uses variance decomposition modelling to explore how wheat revenuevolatility in Australia has changed spatially and temporally. The components ofrevenue variance are the variances and covariances of wheat prices, the area of wheatharvested and the yield of wheat. The key finding is...

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering...

This paper investigates how explicit structural shocks that characterize the endogenous character of oil price changes affect stock-market returns in a sample of eight countries --- Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. For each country, the...

En períodos de tensión en los mercados financieros, recomposiciones en las carteras de renta fija pueden generarse por la preocupación no solo por el riesgo de crédito, sino también por el riesgo de liquidez. Usando información de bonos emitidos por Gobiernos y agencias públicas,...

This study investigates the predictability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative market and time-series forecasts. The findings suggest that predictive performance of the outlook hog price forecasts can be improved substantially. Under RMSE,...

This paper empirically examines the impact of oil price levels and volatility on key macroeconomic indicators of Indonesia. In particular, two measures of volatility – historical volatility and realized volatility – are utilized and compared for their different macroeconomic impacts. The...

Artículo de revista ; The forecasting of macroeconomic variables is an important task of the Banco de España for the satisfactory monitoring of the economic situation. Macroeconomic projections are made by combining various econometric models with expert judgement. This article compares the...