Time series resulting from aggregation of several sub-series can be seasonally adjusted directly or indirectly. With model-based seasonal adjustment, the sub-series may also be considered as a multivariate system of series and the analysis may be done jointly. This approach has considerable...

Incluye bibliografía ; This article estimates a general credit risk model with both macroeconomic and latent credit factors for Spanish banks during the period 2004-2010. The proposed framework allows to estimate with bank level data both the standard credit risk model of Basel II and...

Dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) price interest rate derivatives based on the modelimplied fair values of the yield curve, ignoring any pricing residuals on the yield curve that are either from model approximations or market imperfections. In contrast, option pricing in practice often takes...

We propose a model that delivers endogenous variations in term spreads driven primarily by banks’ portfolio decision and their appetite to bear the risk of maturity transformation. We first show that fluctuations of the future profitability of banks’ portfolios affect their ability to cover...

Este artículo presenta una nueva metodología para estimar el gasto financiero de la Administración Central. La idea subyacente es la de representar desagregadamente la dinámica de la deuda y del gasto por intereses a partir de cuatro elementos: el saldo vivo de la deuda pública inicial, las...

Es difícil cuadrar la reacción asimétrica de las curvas de tipos en el área del euro tras el anuncio del programa de compras de emergencia frente a la pandemia (PEPP, por sus siglas en inglés) del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) con la interpretación ortodoxa de los efectos de las compras de...

La literatura teórica de modelos de curva de tipos enfatiza la importancia de la absorción de riesgo de duración esperada durante la vida residual de los bonos para entender el efecto de las compras de activos de los bancos centrales sobre las curvas de tipos. Motivados por esto, construimos...

La literatura teórica de modelos de curva de tipos enfatiza la importancia de la absorción de riesgo de duración esperada durante la vida residual de los bonos para entender el efecto de las compras de activos de los bancos centrales sobre las curvas de tipos. Motivados por esto, construimos...

This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the...

The European Community (EC) recently commissioned a study of the impact of potential appliance standards on electricity consumption in the twelve EC nations. This study looks at refrigerators, freezers, dishwashers, clothes washers, and clothes dryers. The impact of minimum efficiency standards...