This paper analyses the long-run growth rates of advanced economies, based on demographic factors. To this end, growth is broken down into two components: growth in productivity (GDP per working-age person) and the projected rate of growth of the working-age population. Productivity is assumed...

This paper presents fresh findings about key determinants of credit risk of commercial banks in emerging economy banking systems compared with developed economies. Australia, France, Japan and the US represent developed economies; emerging economies are India, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and...

Contributed Paper prepared for presentation at the International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference, Beijing, China, August 16-22, 2009

Several studies have commented on the emergence of a new inter- national monetary system in the post-Asian crisis years. The current international financial crisis has, however, put Bretton Woods II under considerable strain. This paper analyzes the sustainability of the pre- crisis order from...

The aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of international financial integration on the long-run Real Exchange Rate (RER) in 39 developing countries belonging to three different geographical regions (Latin America, Asia and MENA). It covers the period 1979-2004,...

This paper presents a tool to detect the accumulation of risks in emerging market economies based on a synthetic index of 'vulnerability' for three different types of crisis (sovereign, currency and banking crises). To build the index we fi rst use a signalling approach (Auroc) to preselect the...

Este documento ocasional presenta un marco sencillo, transparente e independiente de modelos para supervisar la acumulación de vulnerabilidades en las economías emergentes que puedan llegar a afectar a la estabilidad financiera de España, a través de vínculos —bien financieros, bien de...

Las economías emergentes con metas de inflación (MI) se enfrentan a un dilema entre cumplir las condiciones teóricas de una «MI estricta», lo que implica un tipo de cambio totalmente flexible, o seguir una gestión más activa de su moneda («MI flexible»), lo que supone implementar...

Este trabajo ofrece un análisis empírico de la forma en que la política monetaria no convencional de Estados Unidos ha afectado a los países de América Latina. En primer lugar, se estiman los efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria de Estados Unidos sobre los tipos de interés de los...

There is a general recognition that there are deficiencies in the Mundell-Fleming model. Nonetheless, Rose [2000] has stated that Mundell was the first to exposit the Policy Trilemma, which identifies an intrinsic incompatibility among: high capital mobility, fixed exchange rates, and monetary...