Probabilistic forecasts play a significant role in a wide variety of economics activities. However, established econometric modeling approaches for probabilistic forecasts may yield unsatisfactory forecasting performance due to model misspecification. In my dissertation, I try to minimize such a...

It is unrealistic to conceive that economic variables or relationships follow a statistical law in which moments or parameters are kept constant over time. The focus of this dissertation is on model specification and testing of time series that are subject to gradual or sudden structural changes...

I discuss three topics in this thesis. The first two concern topics centering on addition to the S&P 500 Index. In chapters two and three, I examine the price and liquidity effects (respectively) of additions to the S&P500 Index from January 1993 to December 2000. The results from chapter two...