visibility, it was believed we could achieve this goal in a very efficient and effective manner. The grand prize of $200K was …

indicate,with one exception, no meaningful differences in forecast accuracy between outlook forecastsand futures prices. The …

flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the … encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide … incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast …

Commodity price uncertainty imposes large costs on society. On the macro level, it results in sudden and unexpected …. Accurate price forecasts have the potential to remove some of this uncertainty and allow for a more efficient distribution of … non-OECD countries, which suffer significantly more from commodity price uncertainty than their OECD counterparts. …

divergent information. We manipulate forecast ability so that two individuals are strong analysts and two are weak. In three …

two questions from the decision making literature. First, what determines how much uncertainty a firm has when investing … data, support was found for the Bounded Rationality hypothesis; firms have less uncertainty about an acquisition … hypothesis; firms whose prior machines perform below aspiration levels seek more uncertainty in their subsequent acquisitions …

. Facing uncertainty about customer types, the firm can gradually learn using observed service costs realized from recent …

degree of task uncertainty during inter-firm product development. Using successfully applied patents in automobile emission … knowledge base in component and architectural knowledge increased under higher task uncertainty respectively. This finding …