Hay evidencia en la literatura sobre episodios de consolidación fiscal que producen efectos expansivos (no keynesianos) (por ejemplo, Alesina y Ardagna, 1998). En este documento replicamos este resultado para un grupo de países de la OCDE asumiendo exogeneidad de la decisión de ajuste fiscal,...

La incertidumbre del modelo continúa siendo un reto para los investigadores aplicados. En general, al llevar a cabo una investigación empírica hay diferentes modelos/ especificaciones disponibles para estudiar el efecto de interés. Frente a esta situación, la técnica más común es...

En este trabajo se analiza la dinámica de propagación de las perturbaciones de los ciclos económicos regionales en Europa y se identifican sus principales factores subyacentes. Asimismo, se propone un nuevo método para medir la sincronización variable en el tiempo en muestras pequeñas, que...

This paper investigates whether the accuracy of outlook hog price forecasts can be improvedusing composite forecasts in an out-of-sample context. Price forecasts from four wellrecognizedoutlook programs are combined with futures-based forecasts, ARIMA, andunrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR)...

Surveys of Professional Forecasters produce precise and timely point forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. However, the accompanying density forecasts are not as widely utilized, and there is no consensus about their quality. This is partly because such surveys are often conducted for...

En este artículo se introducen nuevos esquemas de ponderación para promediar de modelos econométricos cuando se está interesado en combinar predicciones de variables discretas provenientes de modelos con cambios de régimen markoviano. En una aplicación empírica, se pronostican los puntos...

The point source is the most common type of source to be modeled for its effect on air pollution. Point sources provide auxiliary information that may impact both the mean and covariance structure of measured responses, but these possible impacts are often overlooked by spatial modelers. In this...

In survival data analysis, the proportional hazards (PH), accelerated failure time(AFT), and proportional odds (PO) models are commonly used semiparametric models forthe comparison of survivability in subjects. These models assume that the survival curvesdo not cross. However, in some clinical...

This dissertation quantitatively evaluates selected labor market policies in a search-matching model with skill heterogeneity where high-skilled workers can take temporary jobs with skill requirements below their skill levels. The joint posterior distribution of structural parameters of the...

We present an hierarchical Bayes approach to modeling parameter heterogeneity in generalized linear models. The model assumes that there are relevant subpopulations and that within each subpopulation the individual-level regression coefficients have a multivariate normal distribution. However,...