indicate,with one exception, no meaningful differences in forecast accuracy between outlook forecastsand futures prices. The …

flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the … encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide … incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast …

divergent information. We manipulate forecast ability so that two individuals are strong analysts and two are weak. In three …