We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. Especially, we assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, we apply MIDAS models that allow us to forecast quarterly GDP growth...

This article surveys both earlier and recent research on recession forecasting with probit based time series models. Most studies use either a static probit model or its extensions in order toestimate the recession probabilities, while others use models based on a latent variable ap-proach to...

We analyze the relationship of the distribution of future GDP growth and accumulation of household debt in Finnish macroeconomic data from 1980 to 2019. We find clear evidence that exuberant accumulation of household debt is related to the thickening of the left tail of the future growth...