This paper explores the feasibility of calculating absolute poverty lines on the basis of minimum food expenditures in developed countries. It makes three important contributions. First, it demonstrates that standard statistical methods used in the developing world deliver either inadequate...

This report focuses on the forecast of the number of monthly cross-border deals in the European Union. We propose a new model to improve the forecasting properties of a count model of Foreign Direct Investment deals in EU, by taking into account past trends in high-frequency (daily) deal data...

CORTAX is a macroeconomic model that focuses on corporate taxation and is used extensively for European Commission policy assessments. As a macroeconomic model, it simulates variables such as GDP, investment and employment, while being especially notable for its focus on corporate income...

Optimal monetary policy studies typically rely on a single structural model and identification of model-specific rules that minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In our proposed approach, we take a large set of structural models and look for the model-robust...

This paper provides an analysis of scenarios on the evolution of the EU GDP and aggregate consumption over the period 2020-2030, focusing on the role played by the COVID-19 shock. The gap between estimated precrisis trends and projected paths for three important variables are obtained using...

During the COVID-19 pandemic, economists have struggled to obtain reliable economic predictions, with standard models becoming outdated and their forecasting performance deteriorating rapidly. This paper presents two novelties that could be adopted by forecasting institutions in unconventional...