This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation dynamics. Its forecasting performance is also...

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a...

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting...

The present working paper aims to describe the data sources and methods used to develop the Territorial Economic Data viewer (TEDv), as well as to explain the purpose and usefulness of the different dashboards available in the current version of the tool. Additionally, this paper includes...

During the 2010-2019 decade, consumption taxes have risen in the vast majority of the EU Member States as a result of austerity measures, tax shifts as well as taxing transport and housing-related energy consumption. The redistributive impact of these policy changes remains mostly unexplored. In...

This paper contributes to the ongoing efforts by the European authorities to reduce the reporting burden for banks by assessing the statistical methods currently used to compile data on financial transactions related to securities holdings. Based on statistical information collected from the...

The hike in energy prices across Europe in 2022 and 2023 led to significant government interventions. Several governments introduced 'energy price cap' measures to alleviate the increased burden on households' expenditures. This paper presents an ex ante assessment of the expected distributional...

Optimal monetary policy studies typically rely on a single structural model and identification of model-specific rules that minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In our proposed approach, we take a large set of structural models and look for the model-robust...

We investigate whether European banks adjust their loan prices and volumes of new lending in the months running up to major national elections. Using a unique dataset that draws on data covering some 250 banksin 19 Eurozone countries from 2010 to 2020 at monthly frequency, and that includes...

During the COVID-19 pandemic, economists have struggled to obtain reliable economic predictions, with standard models becoming outdated and their forecasting performance deteriorating rapidly. This paper presents two novelties that could be adopted by forecasting institutions in unconventional...