The world is witnessing growing turbulence stemming from geopolitics and a tangible threat of economic disintegration. There are some indications of globalization in retreat, international trade growth slowing down and a transition from optimizing efficiency of global value chains towards...

The main contribution of this paper is the construction of a cyclical systemic risk indicator from early warning indicators of banking crises (EWIs) used in Finland. Previous research has shown that combining EWIs can enhance their early warning properties. This study evaluates the indicator's...

When the central bank sets monetary policy according to a conventional or modified Taylor rule (which is known as the Taylor Principle), does this deliver the best outcome for the mac-roeconomy as a whole? This question is addressed by extending the wavelet-based control (WBC) model of Crowley...

This paper discusses the externalities and market failures in cryptocurrency markets. In particular, I highlight the significant environmental externalities created by Proof-of-Work (PoW) cryptocurrencies, the most prominent of which is Bitcoin. The main goals of this paper are to quantify these...

Population ageing constitutes a central challenge to Finland. Understanding the Finnish economy's likely future trajectory and the key sources of growth is important for the design of policies to counteract these adverse long-term trends. For this purpose, we develop a novel long-run forecast...

While corporate credit losses have been low since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, their future evolution is quite uncertain. Using a forecasting model with a solid track record, we find that the baseline scenario ("expected losses") is benign up to 2024. This is due to policy support...