We analyse the evolution of the systemic risk impact of oil and natural gas companies since 2000. This period is characterised by several events that affected energy source markets: the real effect of the global financial crisis, the explosion of shale production and the diffusion of the...

Predictability is time and frequency dependent. We propose a new forecasting method - forecast combination in the frequency domain - that takes this fact into account. With this method we forecast the equity premium and real GDP growth rate. Combining forecasts in the frequency domain produces...

This paper provides an overview of stress-testing methodologies in Europe, with a focus on the advancements made by the European Central Bank's Financial Stability Committee Working Group on Stress Testing (WGST). Over a four-year period, the WGST played a pivotal role in refining stress-testing...

This paper explores the feasibility of calculating absolute poverty lines on the basis of minimum food expenditures in developed countries. It makes three important contributions. First, it demonstrates that standard statistical methods used in the developing world deliver either inadequate...

This report focuses on the forecast of the number of monthly cross-border deals in the European Union. We propose a new model to improve the forecasting properties of a count model of Foreign Direct Investment deals in EU, by taking into account past trends in high-frequency (daily) deal data...

In early 2020, the rapid spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) quickly developed into a pandemic. This was followed by a sharp global economic downturn that was extraordinary in its speed, reach and scale. Within days of the first reported COVID-19 cases, the ECB daily Composite Indicator of...