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We propose a novel copula approach to producing density forecasts of economic aggregates combining models using disaggregate data. Our copula approach is more flexible compared to existing techniques, because it is applicable to any econometric model that produces density forecasts. We construct...
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Financial shocks represent a major driver of fluctuations in tail risk, defined as the 5th percentile of the forecast … role in shaping risk, although its effects are smaller than those of financial shocks. These findings are obtained using a …
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This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...
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