According to the efficient-market hypothesis, forecasts derived from efficient market prices should be unbeatable. However, numerous institutions, including the European Central Bank, regularly publish forecasts for future inflation that deviate from market expectations. We investigate the...

While corporate credit losses have been low since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, their future evolution is quite uncertain. Using a forecasting model with a solid track record, we find that the baseline scenario ("expected losses") is benign up to 2024. This is due to policy support...

The main contribution of this paper is the construction of a cyclical systemic risk indicator from early warning indicators of banking crises (EWIs) used in Finland. Previous research has shown that combining EWIs can enhance their early warning properties. This study evaluates the indicator's...