We assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic effects are measured using structural vector autoregressions. In the...

This paper takes stock of the ECB's macroeconometric modelling strategy by focusing on the models and applications used in the Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division. We focus on the guiding principles underpinning the current portfolio of the main macroeconomic models and illustrate how they...

This paper presents the updated macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising around 100 of the largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks' reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of...

Unique administrative data on a representative population's cognitive abilities, spending, and financials reveal that consumers at or below median cognitive abilities barely react when their incentives to spend or borrow change, even if they earn high incomes and are financially unconstrained...

We investigate the effects of the 2014-20 European structural funds with a general equilibrium model calibrated on the NUTS 1 regions of the EU. We assume forward-looking agents to account for expectations and long-lasting effects of the policy. The almost €260 billion of investments lead the...

We present an analysis on cohesion policy investments in the regions of Romania using the spatial dynamic general equilibrium model RHOMOLO in order to provide useful insights on the 2021-2027 programmes and their implications for growth and development. The analysis is based on a hypothetical...

This paper presents a macroeconomic evaluation of the impact of the Horizon 2020 funds, carried out using the spatial dynamic general equilibrium model RHOMOLO. The policy disbursement data used to feed the model relate to the actual use of the funds over the period 2014-2021, so this is...

Climate-related physical risks pose serious concerns for both public and private finances, and it is of utmost importance to contain economic losses when natural catastrophes occur. In this context, the paper models the potential economic impact of currently uninsured floods in the EU. It also...

This paper uses a stylized simulation model to assess the potential impact of transition risk on banks' balance sheets and establishes a basis for calibrating relevant macro-prudential instruments. We show that even in the short run, a fire-sale mechanism could amplify an initially contained...