The output gap is a commonly used tool to assess the state of the business cycle, and as such, a key input for policy makers. In this article, we employ principal components analysis (PCA) to derive an estimate of the output gap in Finland that summarizes the information of widely used cyclical...

We document a remarkable increase in economic belief polarization - disagreement - regarding the future state of the economy across Europe during the Covid-19 pandemic. We find evidence suggesting that belief polarization may have impeded the implementation of pandemic response measures such as...

Koronaviruksen taltuttamisen seurauksena talouttamme on kohdannut samanaikaisesti en-nennäkemätön tarjonta-, kysyntä- ja rahoitusmarkkinahäiriö, joka leikkaa ison loven ta-louteemme. Talousvaikutusten arviointi edellyttää tietoa epidemian kestosta, jota mallinne-taan epidemiakäyrän...

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...

Long-term fixed-rate mortgage contracts protect households against interest rate risk, yet most countries have relatively short interest rate fixation lengths. Using administrative data from the UK, the paper finds that the choice of fixation length tracks the life-cycle decline of credit risk...

Zombie firms may adversely impact healthy firms through several transmission channels. Besides real spillover effects on productivity or investment, zombies may also cause negative financial spillover effects, where zombies receive credit at more favourable conditions than healthy firms. We...