Showing 1 - 10 of 102
We propose a new Bayesian VAR model for forecasting household loan stocks in Finland. The model is designed to work as a satellite model of a larger DSGE model for the Finnish economy, the Aino 2.0 model. The forecasts produced with the BVAR model can be conditioned on projections of several...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013272734
This study aims to explore the extent to which changes in wealth contributes to inflation utilizing a highly flexible non-Gaussian SVAR framework which minimizes the risk of distributional misspecification. We employ narrative sign restrictions to label the asset price shock and leverage the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014573996
This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation dynamics. Its forecasting performance is also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622377
According to the efficient-market hypothesis, forecasts derived from efficient market prices should be unbeatable. However, numerous institutions, including the European Central Bank, regularly publish forecasts for future inflation that deviate from market expectations. We investigate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015101910
We study recent inflation and labour market dynamics in the euro area within a general equilibrium framework. Rapid inflation was mainly caused by demand and supply shocks, but labor market-specific shocks also contributed to the surge in inflation. Our results underscore the significance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015410150
This policy brief prepared by ECLAC examines the economic and social impact of the war in Ukraine on the region, and offers countries recommendations on how to address its effects. The document analyzes economic and social variables as well as the different sectors of the regional economy that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013329423
When the central bank sets monetary policy according to a conventional or modified Taylor rule (which is known as the Taylor Principle), does this deliver the best outcome for the mac-roeconomy as a whole? This question is addressed by extending the wavelet-based control (WBC) model of Crowley...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170972
We study the yield curve control in Eurozone. We apply Chen, Cúrdia and Ferrero (2012) model that uses a financial friction to break Wallace's neutrality. We calibrate a bond supply shock that corresponds to the observed change in the time premium in euro area when the APP program was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012221811
We study the effect of quantitative tightening both without forward guidance and with higher for longer guidance. This is done by simulating quantitative tightening strategies in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model estimated with the euro area data. Quantitative tightening is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014483114
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014450133