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Quantifying macroeconomic uncertainty in Norway

Bowe, Frida; Kirkeby, Sara Jahr; Lindalen, Ingvild Hagen; … - 2023

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014313751

Forecasting unemployment in Finland : a flow approach

Lindblad, Annika; Gäddnäs, Niklas - 2024

. Labour market flows improve forecasts over very short forecasting horizons. Additional labour market variables can improve … proves advantageous especially when forecasting two quarters ahead. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014574000

EUROMOD baseline report

Maier, Sofía; Ricci, Mattia - 2022

This paper presents baseline results from the latest public version (I4.0+) of EUROMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the EU. We begin by briefly discussing the process of updating EUROMOD. We then present indicators for income inequality and at-risk-of-poverty using EUROMOD and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013260265

The effectiveness of Minimum Income schemes in the EU

Almeida, Vanda; De Poli, Silvia; Hernández, Adrian - 2022

Minimum Income (MI) schemes are essential to alleviate poverty and guarantee a last-resort safety net to households with insufficient resources. Assessing the effectiveness of MI schemes in poverty reduction is challenging. Studies based on survey microdata are usually subject to a bias because...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013392105

Aggregate density forecast of models using disaggregate data - a copula approach

Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; Fastbø, Tuva Marie; … - 2022

We propose a novel copula approach to producing density forecasts of economic aggregates combining models using disaggregate data. Our copula approach is more flexible compared to existing techniques, because it is applicable to any econometric model that produces density forecasts. We construct...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013207340

ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis : development, current practices and prospective challenges

Ciccarelli, Matteo (ed.); Darracq Pariès, Matthieu (ed.); … - 2024

in the Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division. We focus on the guiding principles underpinning the current portfolio … of the main macroeconomic models and illustrate how they can in principle be used for economic forecasting, scenario and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014507371

2023 macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system : bank resilience in a changing environment : challenges and opportunities

Cappelletti, Giuseppe; Dimitrov, Ivan; Le Grand, Catherine - 2024

This paper presents the updated macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising around 100 of the largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks' reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014530281

The bias of the ECB inflation projections : a State-dependent analysis

Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Paloviita, Maritta - 2024

underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is … most pronounced at intermediate forecasting horizons. This suggests that inflation is projected to revert towards the … target too quickly. These results cannot be fully explained by the persistence embedded in the forecasting models nor by …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014532443

News or animal spirits? : consumer confidence and economic activity: Redux

Choi, Sangyyup; Jeong, Jaehun; Park, Dohyeon; Yoo, Donghoon - 2023

Barsky and Sims (2012, AER) demonstrated, via indirect inference, that confidence innovations can be viewed as noisy signals about medium-term economic growth. They highlighted that the connection between confidence and subsequent activity, such as consumption and output, is primarily driven by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014248736

Employment protection and labour productivity growth in the EU : skill-specific effects during and after the Great Recession

Fedotenkov, Igor; Kvedaras, Virmantas; … - 2022

The paper investigates the relationship between employment protection legislation (EPL hereafter) and labour productivity growth in the EU in the context of the Great Recession. We consider the crisis and recovery periods, evaluate the relevance of both levels and changes in EPL for productivity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013259541