Confidence dropped universally across countries and sectors during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Latest survey data suggest that confidence is on track for a v-shaped recovery. The swift implementation of stringent containment measures as well as economic stimulus policy...

Using firm-level survey data combined with firm-level financial information, we investigate the effect of a subjective, firm-specific measure of uncertainty on firm investment and employment growth in the European Union. We find that uncertainty has an economically significant negative effect on...

We empirically investigate whether firms lower information frictions in foreign sourcing through prior exporting. Using a panel of Slovenian manufacturing firms in the period 1996-2011, we estimate the probability of import entry in a new market when the firm is already exporting to the same...

We develop a tractable model of Bitcoin adoption with network effects and social learning, which we then connect to unique data from the Bank of Canada's Bitcoin Omnibus Survey for the years 2017 and 2018. The model determines how the probability of Bitcoin adoption depends on (1) network...

We study a competitive banking sector in which banks choose the level of risk of their asset portfolios and, upon the public disclosure of stress test results, raise funding by promising investors a repayment. We show that competition forces banks to choose risky assets so as to promise...

This paper studies the role of expectations and monetary policy on the economy's response to climate actions. We show that in a stochastic environment and without the standard assumption of perfect rationality of agents, there is more uncertainty regarding the path and the economic impact of a...

Population ageing constitutes a central challenge to Finland. Understanding the Finnish economy's likely future trajectory and the key sources of growth is important for the design of policies to counteract these adverse long-term trends. For this purpose, we develop a novel long-run forecast...

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...