Predictability is time and frequency dependent. We propose a new forecasting method - forecast combination in the frequency domain - that takes this fact into account. With this method we forecast the equity premium and real GDP growth rate. Combining forecasts in the frequency domain produces...

We analyse the evolution of the systemic risk impact of oil and natural gas companies since 2000. This period is characterised by several events that affected energy source markets: the real effect of the global financial crisis, the explosion of shale production and the diffusion of the...

This paper provides an overview of stress-testing methodologies in Europe, with a focus on the advancements made by the European Central Bank's Financial Stability Committee Working Group on Stress Testing (WGST). Over a four-year period, the WGST played a pivotal role in refining stress-testing...

While corporate credit losses have been low since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, their future evolution is quite uncertain. Using a forecasting model with a solid track record, we find that the baseline scenario ("expected losses") is benign up to 2024. This is due to policy support...

The main contribution of this paper is the construction of a cyclical systemic risk indicator from early warning indicators of banking crises (EWIs) used in Finland. Previous research has shown that combining EWIs can enhance their early warning properties. This study evaluates the indicator's...

The paper investigates the influence of the speed of liquidation of insolvent firms on leverage. The theoretical model presented formalizes the intuitive view that an increase in liquidation speed is expected to decrease average leverage as highly leveraged firms exit. Analysis of Indian data,...

We propose an econometric model for predicting the share of bank debt held by bankrupt firms by combining a novel set of firm-level financial variables and macroeconomic indicators. Our firm-level data include payment remarks in the form of debt collections from private agencies and attachments...

The credit gap in this study is given by the financing needs of firms that are bankable but discouraged from applying for a loan. To quantify the credit gap, we combine a scoring model that assesses the creditworthiness of discouraged firms with a credit allocation rule. Our study covers 35...

Firms' contractual relations with a state may give lenders a positive signal and facilitate access to debt. This paper studies the impact of public procurement contracts on ftrms' access to debt using an extensive survey of Russian manufacturing ftrms combined with accounting and procurement...