We propose a novel copula approach to producing density forecasts of economic aggregates combining models using disaggregate data. Our copula approach is more flexible compared to existing techniques, because it is applicable to any econometric model that produces density forecasts. We construct...

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...

In this paper we evaluate whether the accuracy of Finnish unemployment rate forecasts can be improved by utilising the information in the flows into and out of unemployment. We compare and contrast different methodologies for constructing the flows. Our results indicate that Bayesian vector...

In response to the two waves of Covid-19 in 2020, the Italian government implemented a general lockdown in March, but geographically targeted policies during fall. We exploit this natural experiment to compare the effects of the two policies in a difference-in-differences design, leveraging a...

This work investigates the role of local public investment in stimulating private investment and in providing support to growth and development. The analysis is based on a combination of datasets, allowing to build an unbalanced panel for 98 NUTS2 European regions in 13 member states, and for...

We propose an econometric model for predicting the share of bank debt held by bankrupt firms by combining a novel set of firm-level financial variables and macroeconomic indicators. Our firm-level data include payment remarks in the form of debt collections from private agencies and attachments...

We examine Russian imports since a coalition of countries imposed sanctions on exports to Russia. As Russia no longer publishes detailed statistics on foreign trade, we rely on export data from its largest trading partners (mirror statistics). We are particularly interested in trade diversion,...

We empirically investigate whether firms lower information frictions in foreign sourcing through prior exporting. Using a panel of Slovenian manufacturing firms in the period 1996-2011, we estimate the probability of import entry in a new market when the firm is already exporting to the same...

We study how international trade networks react to natural disasters. We combine exhaustive firm-to-firm trade credit and disaster data and use a dynamic difference-indifferences identification strategy. We establish the causal effect of natural disasters abroad on the size, shape and quality of...

In this paper, we examine how a trade conflict's impact on the real economy can be amplified by financial intermediaries. After the Norwegian Nobel Peace Prize Committee awarded the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo, China in practice banned imports of Norwegian salmon. The...