Confidence dropped universally across countries and sectors during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Latest survey data suggest that confidence is on track for a v-shaped recovery. The swift implementation of stringent containment measures as well as economic stimulus policy...

Using firm-level survey data combined with firm-level financial information, we investigate the effect of a subjective, firm-specific measure of uncertainty on firm investment and employment growth in the European Union. We find that uncertainty has an economically significant negative effect on...

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting...