Showing 1 - 10 of 160
We assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic effects are measured using structural vector autoregressions. In the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622376
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013470561
While corporate credit losses have been low since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, their future evolution is quite uncertain. Using a forecasting model with a solid track record, we find that the baseline scenario ("expected losses") is benign up to 2024. This is due to policy support...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605728
We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. Especially, we assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, we apply MIDAS models that allow us to forecast quarterly GDP growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012214415
We analyze the relationship of the distribution of future GDP growth and accumulation of household debt in Finnish macroeconomic data from 1980 to 2019. We find clear evidence that exuberant accumulation of household debt is related to the thickening of the left tail of the future growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012521030
This study aims to explore the extent to which changes in wealth contributes to inflation utilizing a highly flexible non-Gaussian SVAR framework which minimizes the risk of distributional misspecification. We employ narrative sign restrictions to label the asset price shock and leverage the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014573996
The main contribution of this paper is the construction of a cyclical systemic risk indicator from early warning indicators of banking crises (EWIs) used in Finland. Previous research has shown that combining EWIs can enhance their early warning properties. This study evaluates the indicator's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014526680
We study the yield curve control in Eurozone. We apply Chen, Cúrdia and Ferrero (2012) model that uses a financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012221811
When the central bank sets monetary policy according to a conventional or modified Taylor rule (which is known as the Taylor Principle), does this deliver the best outcome for the mac-roeconomy as a whole? This question is addressed by extending the wavelet-based control (WBC) model of Crowley...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170972
We study the effect of quantitative tightening both without forward guidance and with higher for longer guidance. This is done by simulating quantitative tightening strategies in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model estimated with the euro area data. Quantitative tightening is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014483114