This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation dynamics. Its forecasting performance is also...

In this paper we analyze features of the recent business cycle with a New Keynesian small open economy DSGE model with labour market frictions and wage rigidity. The model complements the existing analytical tools of the Bank of Finland by enabling detailed analysis of labour markets in a DSGE...

We propose a new Bayesian VAR model for forecasting household loan stocks in Finland. The model is designed to work as a satellite model of a larger DSGE model for the Finnish economy, the Aino 2.0 model. The forecasts produced with the BVAR model can be conditioned on projections of several...

We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. Especially, we assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, we apply MIDAS models that allow us to forecast quarterly GDP growth...

This study aims to explore the extent to which changes in wealth contributes to inflation utilizing a highly flexible non-Gaussian SVAR framework which minimizes the risk of distributional misspecification. We employ narrative sign restrictions to label the asset price shock and leverage the...

The output gap is a commonly used tool to assess the state of the business cycle, and as such, a key input for policy makers. In this article, we employ principal components analysis (PCA) to derive an estimate of the output gap in Finland that summarizes the information of widely used cyclical...

In this paper we evaluate whether the accuracy of Finnish unemployment rate forecasts can be improved by utilising the information in the flows into and out of unemployment. We compare and contrast different methodologies for constructing the flows. Our results indicate that Bayesian vector...

We assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic effects are measured using structural vector autoregressions. In the...

We study the yield curve control in Eurozone. We apply Chen, Cúrdia and Ferrero (2012) model that uses a financial friction to break Wallace's neutrality. We calibrate a bond supply shock that corresponds to the observed change in the time premium in euro area when the APP program was...