Russia does not release information on the numbers of mobilized and recruited men or casualties of war in Ukraine. In this small note, I propose to use information from regional banking data as a proxy for analyzing the regional incidence of Russian mobilization. Some regions have seen rapid...

This paper analyzes the potential effect of a European Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on banks' profitability. We use a large sample of EU banks that span the period from 2007 to 2021 to assess the sensitivity of banks' profits to the deposits. Using quantile regression, we estimate the...

Zombie firms may adversely impact healthy firms through several transmission channels. Besides real spillover effects on productivity or investment, zombies may also cause negative financial spillover effects, where zombies receive credit at more favourable conditions than healthy firms. We...

During the COVID-19 pandemic, house prices and mortgage credit rose at a longunseen pace. It is unclear, however, whether such increases are warranted by the underlying market and macroeconomic fundamentals. This paper offers a new structural two-market disequilibrium model that can be estimated...

While corporate credit losses have been low since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, their future evolution is quite uncertain. Using a forecasting model with a solid track record, we find that the baseline scenario ("expected losses") is benign up to 2024. This is due to policy support...

Using daily data since 2017, we disentangle China-specific structural shocks driving Chinese financial markets and examine spillovers across global markets. The novelty of this paper consists of simultaneously identifying China shocks with shocks emanating from the United States and shocks to...

We investigate whether European banks adjust their loan prices and volumes of new lending in the months running up to major national elections. Using a unique dataset that draws on data covering some 250 banksin 19 Eurozone countries from 2010 to 2020 at monthly frequency, and that includes...

We study the implications of forging stronger political ties with the US on the sensitivities of stock returns around the world to a global common factor - the global financial cycle. Using voting patterns at the United Nations as a measure of political ties with the US along with various...

We examine a propagation mechanism that arises from households' long-term borrowing and show empirically that it has sizable real effects. The mechanism recognises that when there is long-term debt, an impulse to new borrowing generates a predictable hump-shaped path of future debt service. We...

We construct a new indicator of de facto financial integration in the EU. The resulting indicator is pro-cyclical as it evolves along the cyclical pattern of economic activity in the European Union. It is then appended to a set of relevant financial and macroeconomic variables, within a FAVAR...