We assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic effects are measured using structural vector autoregressions. In the...

We study the yield curve control in Eurozone. We apply Chen, Cúrdia and Ferrero (2012) model that uses a financial friction to break Wallace's neutrality. We calibrate a bond supply shock that corresponds to the observed change in the time premium in euro area when the APP program was...

We propose a new Bayesian VAR model for forecasting household loan stocks in Finland. The model is designed to work as a satellite model of a larger DSGE model for the Finnish economy, the Aino 2.0 model. The forecasts produced with the BVAR model can be conditioned on projections of several...

This article looks into global central bank messaging on the Twitter social media platform. At the end of 2021, a total of 122 central banks and monetary authorities had registered accounts on Twitter At that time, approximately two-thirds of world's central banks and monetary author- ities were...

Population ageing constitutes a central challenge to Finland. Understanding the Finnish economy's likely future trajectory and the key sources of growth is important for the design of policies to counteract these adverse long-term trends. For this purpose, we develop a novel long-run forecast...

This article surveys both earlier and recent research on recession forecasting with probit based time series models. Most studies use either a static probit model or its extensions in order toestimate the recession probabilities, while others use models based on a latent variable ap-proach to...