This paper studies fiscal policy in a New Keynesian DSGE model with endogenous technology growth in which scarring can occur endogenously through hysteresis effects in TFP. Both demand- and supply-driven recessions can weaken investment in R&D and technology adoption, thus depressing the...

Barsky and Sims (2012, AER) demonstrated, via indirect inference, that confidence innovations can be viewed as noisy signals about medium-term economic growth. They highlighted that the connection between confidence and subsequent activity, such as consumption and output, is primarily driven by...

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a...

This paper studies the cost of limited commitment when a central bank has the discretion to adjust policy whenever the costs of honoring its past commitments become high. Specifically, we consider a central bank that seeks to implement optimal policy in a New Keynesian model by committing to a...

This paper studies price stability and debt sustainability when the real rate exceeds trend growth (r g) in a New Keynesian model with endogenous technology growth through R&D. Under debt-stabilizing ("passive") fiscal policy the Taylor principle is not sufficient for determinacy. Instead,...

The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the significance of our two additional monetary shocks in impacting real oil...

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting...

I document a statistical link between old-age dependency ratios and average markups. I propose that a mechanism whereby households develop deep habits in consumption as they age could explain this feature of the data. I show that when this mechanism is embedded in an overlapping generations New...

Optimal monetary policy studies typically rely on a single structural model and identification of model-specific rules that minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In our proposed approach, we take a large set of structural models and look for the model-robust...

We study asymmetric inflation effects of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area during the period of low nominal interest rates. We find that rate cuts are inflationary also during low interest rates. Positive quantitative easing surprises have a deflationary...