Cross-border bank flows, which had surged in the run-up to the global financial crisis (GFC), shrank significantly after the GFC. According to our findings, this development did not point to financial deglobalization, as was widely expected. Instead, it reflected a cross-border deleveraging of...

Forecasts of GDP growth are typically over-optimistic for horizons beyond the current year, particularly because they fail to predict the occurrence or severity of future downturns. Macroeconomic forecasters have also long been under pressure to convey the uncertainty surrounding their...

This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned. The projections repeatedly over-estimated growth, failing to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the...

The phenomenon liberalization, with the influence of the Bretton Woods system that collapsed subsequent to the Oil Shock in 1970, first began with the efforts to discover markets to value the investments of these countries in the developed countries. In order to provide the desired capital...

This paper estimates the long-term effects of the global recession of 2008–2009 on output in 23 countries. I measure these effects by comparing current estimates of potential output from the OECD and IMF to the path that potential was following in 2007, according to estimates at the time. The...

Die Liberalisierung der globalen Finanzmärkte hat ihr Ziel verfehlt, für mehr Stabilität und Wirtschaftswachstum zu sorgen. Stattdessen folgt seit 30 Jahren eine Krise auf die andere. Jetzt werden etliche Bankenreformen diskutiert, um die Finanzmärkte krisensicherer zu machen. Dabei...

The recent crisis of 2008 has revealed several challenges for the economic science, sparking a considerable amount of debate regarding the profession of economists and the role of macroeconomics and monetary policies. The first question that arose was why there was a lack of anticipation of the...