need for macroeconomic forecasters to account for sudden and deep recessions, periods of higher macroeconomic volatility … Factor Model (MS-DFM) by incorporating two new features: switches in volatility and time-variation in trend GDP growth. First …, we show that volatility switches largely improve the detection of business cycle turning points in the low-volatility …

The decline in macroeconomic volatility from the 1980s to the onset of the Great Recession did not, in general …, translate into more microeconomic stability. While microeconomic volatility can reflect growth-generating processes, such as … creative destruction and re-allocation of resources, consumption growth volatility weighs on households’ welfare. This study …

-country interdependence of output volatility has evolved over the period 1955 to 2006. From a methodological perspective, we adopt a spatial … econometric approach, relating a country's output volatility to (distance weighted averages of) other countries' output volatility … results for the most recent period suggest that a uniform shock to output volatility in the world economy roughly …

Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model. It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are … divergent when volatility clusters idiosyncratically. It is illustrated that this property is important for empirical … multivariate stochastic volatility model is proposed as a robust alternative. …