We assess the role played by exchange rates in buffering or amplifying the propagation of shocks across international equity markets. Using copula functions we model the joint dependence between exchange rates and two global equity markets and, from a copula framework, we obtain the conditional...

This paper analyses for 34 OECD countries the extent to which the calculation of aggregate multi-factor productivity (MFP) is sensitive to alternative parameterisations. The starting point is the definition of MFP used in previous work in the OECD’s Economics Department (e.g. Johansson et al....

This paper reviews and assesses financial stability challenges in countries preparing for EU membership, i.e. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey. The paper focuses on the period since 2014 and on the banking sectors...

During the commodity price spikes in 2007-08 and 2010-11, several countries implemented temporary export restrictions on staple foods in an attempt to protect domestic consumers from rising and volatile prices. The impacts of these policies, however, are not limited to the countries that are...

We define tail interdependence as a situation where extreme outcomes for some variables are informative about such outcomes for other variables. We extend the concept of multiinformation to quantify tail interdependence, decompose it into systemic and residual interdependence and measure the...

We investigate how often replication studies are published in empirical economics and what types of journal articles are eventually replicated. We find that from 1974 to 2014 0.10% of publications in the Top 50 economics journals were replications. We take into account the results of replication...

Computational methods to gauge investor sentiment from commonly used online data sources that rely on machine learning classifiers and lexicons have shown considerable promise, but suffer from measurement and classification errors. In our work, we develop a simple, direct and unambiguous...

The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE). This measure, however, has the major drawback that it is constant over time and hence...

The North Korean economy has been a statistical black hole for decades but is undergoing substantial transformations. Rapid post-war industrialisation was not sustained beyond the mid-1960s and South Korea’s economy far outpaced North Korea’s during the next three decades, during which trend...