Several studies have reported a large negative effect of national borders on the volume of trade. We provide new estimates of the border effect for continental Europe using road rather than great circle – or “as-crows-fly” – distance. Road distances for 48 180 European city pairs have...

This paper presents descriptive evidence of specialisation trends and investigates empirically their causes and consequences, analysing the role of policies in this process. Then, based on the insights from the backward looking analysis, it draws global trade and specialisation scenarios up to...

This paper provides a detailed description of recent research to re-estimate and re-specify the international trade volume and price equations that are used in the OECD Economics Department to analyse and project international trade developments. The set of countries covered by the estimations...

This paper quantifies the importance of different determinants of trade at the industry level using a sample of 54 OECD and non-OECD economies. The empirical methodology extends the approach of previous empirical studies to explicitly quantify the impact that trading partners’ factor...

This paper examines changes in the steel-related export structure of the ten largest steelmaking economies between 2004 and 2014, in terms of the steel products exported and the market destination for those exports. To shed light on how exporters’ patterns of specialisation have changed in the...

This paper provides estimates of the potential trade effects of an exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) on exports and production at the sectoral level as well as GDP in the Netherlands. Owing to the high uncertainty regarding the final trade agreement between the...

The rapid integration of emerging market economies (EMEs) into world trade over the past three decades has raised widespread concerns about the effects this is having on trade-exposed sectors in advanced OECD countries. An analysis of international trade patterns of over 4000 products between...

This paper uses “centrality” metrics to reflect the changing structure of Global Value Chains (GVCs), contrasting central hubs and peripheral countries and sectors, and examine how these changes impact firm productivity. Using cross-country firm-level data from ORBIS, the paper finds that...

The countries that compromise the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have expanded their involvement in global agro-food trade through strong regional production growth and increasing consumer demands from population growth and higher incomes. Regional and international agro-food...

This study explores feasibility of regional rice market integration by examining the impacts on production and trade, with a specific focus on the adjustment impacts for rice producers. It seeks to set out policy measures required to better integrate the rice markets of Association of Southeast...