Showing 1 - 10 of 24
This paper introduces the OECD Weekly Tracker of economic activity for 46 OECD and G20 countries using Google Trends search data. The Tracker performs well in pseudo-real time simulations including around the COVID-19 crisis. The underlying model adds to the previous Google Trends literature in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012420946
forecasting. Economic forecasting is made difficult by economic complexity, which implies non-linearities (multiple interactions … the algorithm in forecasting GDP growth 3- to 12-months ahead is assessed through simulations in pseudo-real-time for six …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012203223
Official Development Assistance amounted USD 146.6 billions in 2017 but do we know how much of this aid contributed to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)? And to what SDG in particular? This paper present a new methodology using machine learning designed to link project-based flows to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011992077
To gain a better understanding of the financial sustainability of health systems, the OECD has produced a new set of health spending projections up to 2030 for all its member countries. Estimates are produced across a range of policy situations. Policy situations analysed include a “base”...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012136137
We introduce SRISK to measure the systemic risk contribution of a financial firm. SRISK measures the capital shortfall of a firm conditional on a severe market decline, and is a function of its size, leverage and risk. We use the measure to study top US financial institutions in the recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975954
Austria has a model of “separate gender roles” in work, family and life arrangements which persists despite efforts to better balance these roles. Irrespective of their education level - which is higher for new generations than men’s - the majority of women with children withdraw fully or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011576950
There is ample empirical evidence for strong and persistent patterns of separated gender roles in Austria. While this model is generally considered to have worked well in the past, it faces important challenges arising from societal and economic changes in Austria. Hence, gender mainstreaming...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011576956
This paper compares the short-term forecasting performance of state-of-the-art large-scale dynamic factor models (DFMs … implication for OECD forecasting practice is that there would be no gain from switching from the current small-scale bridge models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011577829
This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European … factors extracted from large monthly datasets. The forecasting exercise is performed in a simulated real-time context, which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011641205
macroeconomic forecasting. Controlling for the release dates of each of a set of indicators, we generated nowcasts of GDP growth for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011664042