forecasting. Economic forecasting is made difficult by economic complexity, which implies non-linearities (multiple interactions … the algorithm in forecasting GDP growth 3- to 12-months ahead is assessed through simulations in pseudo-real-time for six …

The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of … the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE). This measure, however, has the … probability distribution of forecasting errors are needed in order to draw confidence bands around point forecasts. This paper …

Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as …

This paper compares the short-term forecasting performance of state-of-the-art large-scale dynamic factor models (DFMs … implication for OECD forecasting practice is that there would be no gain from switching from the current small-scale bridge models …