A statistically significant relationship between the unemployment gap and inflation can be found for a clear majority … slack on inflation can often be dominated by other shocks, including imported inflation. The current Secretariat Phillips … curve specification assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s target, although some experimentation …

Inflation has become much less sensitive to movements in unemployment in recent decades. A common explanation for this … change is that inflation expectations have become better anchored as a consequence of credible inflation targeting by central … traditional ‘backward-looking’ Phillips curve, where current inflation is partly explained by an autoregressive distributed lag …

Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation … component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of … disaggregated HICP inflation rates for 12 euro area countries. For each individual inflation rate, we estimate a low …

This report updates and extends earlier assessments of quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations of consumers … inflation are found to be higher than actual HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) inflation over the entire sample period … (2004-2015). The analysis shows that European consumers hold different opinions of inflation depending on their income, age …